Articles
Systematic research articles built on our four-dimensional analysis framework, covering fundamentals, macro reads, investment strategy, and practical tools.
Fundamentals
A History of Gold Price Cycles: 1971 to Today
From the end of Bretton Woods to the 2020s central-bank-buying era, gold has moved through five distinct cycles. Each one was driven by a different combination of forces, which is the real lesson worth taking from the history.
7 min read
Is Gold Actually an Inflation Hedge? The Evidence, For and Against
Gold's reputation as an inflation hedge holds up well over long horizons and falls apart over short ones. We walk through the 1970s, the 2010s, and what separates the periods when the hedge worked from the periods when it did not.
7 min read
The Four-Dimensional Framework for Analyzing Gold Prices
Gold responds to monetary policy, geopolitics, physical supply and demand, and market technicals all at once. Here is the framework we use to keep those four forces straight.
8 min read
Macro
Gold and the Dollar: Why the Inverse Rule Keeps Breaking
Gold is supposed to fall when the dollar strengthens, and often it does. But the rule has broken in some of the most important markets of the past two decades, and the reasons it breaks are more useful than the rule itself.
4 min read
Gold in Rate-Cutting Cycles: What History Actually Shows
Rate cuts are widely assumed to be rocket fuel for gold. The record is friendlier than for most assets but far messier than the slogan, and the reason for the cuts matters more than the cuts themselves.
4 min read
De-Dollarization and Gold: A New Pricing Paradigm, Not Just a New Headline
Gold's pricing model has quietly shifted from 'real rates plus the dollar' toward 'central bank strategy plus confidence in the monetary system.' Here is what that shift actually means and how far it has really gone.
7 min read
Gold and Real Interest Rates: The Opportunity-Cost Logic, and When It Breaks Down
The negative relationship between gold and real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates is the single most-cited driver in gold analysis. Here is why it exists, how strong it actually is, and the conditions under which it stops working.
7 min read
Central Bank Gold Buying: The Structural Story Behind the Gold Market
Since 2022, central banks have bought gold at a pace not seen in decades. Here is what the data shows, why it is happening, and how much it should change how you think about gold.
7 min read
Strategy
The Gold-Silver Ratio: What It Measures, and Why It Is a Weaker Signal Than It Looks
The gold-silver ratio has swung from 15:1 to over 100:1 across history. A quick guide to what the ratio actually captures, its historical range, and why using it to time trades is riskier than it sounds.
7 min read
How Much Gold Should You Actually Hold? What the Allocation Research Says
The 5-10% rule of thumb for gold allocation shows up everywhere. We trace where it comes from, what it depends on, and how correlation and risk-parity thinking change the answer.
7 min read
Tools
Reading Gold Market Indicators: DXY, VIX, COT, ETF Flows, and Real Rates Together
No single indicator explains gold on its own. A practical, indicator-by-indicator guide to what each one tells you, what it misses, and how to read them as a set rather than in isolation.
7 min read
Gold ETFs vs. Physical Bullion vs. Futures: Which Tool Fits Which Goal
Three ways to get gold exposure, three very different cost, liquidity, tax, and counterparty-risk profiles. A practical comparison table plus the scenarios where each tool actually makes sense.
7 min read